Yellow Fever Research Today is a free monthly online journal that collates and summarizes the latest research about Yellow Fever, including details on immunization, vaccines, symptoms, transmission.

Early determination of the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases: the case of dengue in Brazil.

Favier C, Degallier N, Rosa-Freitas MG, Boulanger JP, Costa Lima JR, Luitgards-Moura JF, Menkès CE, Mondet B, Oliveira C, Weimann ET, Tsouris P

LOCEAN, UMR 7159-IRD/UR182, Paris, France. charly.favier@lodyc.jussieu.fr

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate a new method of deriving the reproductive number for vector-borne diseases from the early epidemic curves for vector-borne diseases with incubations in the vectors and in the hosts. METHOD: We applied the model to several dengue epidemics in different climatic regions of Brazil: Brasilia, Belém, Fortaleza, Boa Vista. RESULTS: The new method leads to higher estimates of the reproductive number than previous models. CONCLUSION: At present, Aedes aegypti densities, the meeting of more compatible strains of viruses and mosquitoes, may lead to re-emergence of urban yellow fever epidemics.

Published 23 March 2006 in Trop Med Int Health, 11(3): 332-40.
Full-text of this article is available online (may require subscription).

© 2005-2008 Yellow Fever Research Today. All Rights Reserved.